A Crappy Lifeguard Makes Us All Less Safe - The Peltzman Effect

A counterintuitive Truth: Why the appearance of safety actually makes us less safe.

Let’s say you’re babysitting two 10 year old kids and you take them to the local pool to swim. As you approach you’re reassured because you see a lifeguard on duty. So you sit down in your chair and start checking your phone as the kids play in the water. 10 minutes later your life is ruined because one of the children drown on your watch.

“But there was a lifeguard on duty! How could this happen?”

This phenomenon is called the Peltzman Effect. It was popularized when automobile seatbelt laws didn’t reduce traffic deaths as much as expected. Why? Because drivers drove more recklessly, feeling safer.

Seems counterintuitive doesn’t it? Why would a great safety mechanism like a seatbelt not be completely positive?

It relates to another term called: “risk homeostasis” a theory that suggests people maintain a consistent level of risk by adjusting their actions.

In general, we each have an acceptable level of risk. Some people are very risk tolerant. Think of those people that rock climb “free solo” without any ropes thousands of feet in the air. While others are less tolerant of risk and can’t even get on top of their own roof.

In general, we all have an acceptable level or risk that we are willing to take. We keep that same level of risk even when something is made “safer”. That’s why some people actually ended up driving more recklessly when they felt more secure in their car protected by a seatbelt and airbag.

It’s a counterintuitive problem that demonstrates the complexity of the human condition.

My Favorite Study on Fatherhood:

One of my favorite studies that I found while trying to learn to be a good father was “What is the relationship between risky outdoor play and health in children? A systematic review.” When I grew up, playgrounds were made of metal, concrete, and shards of broken glass. (Okay maybe I’m being dramatic) But now, playgrounds are covered in foam padding, plastic everywhere, and kids aren’t even allowed to play Tag for fear of someone getting hurt.

While OF COURSE the rationale for this makes total sense! All of us want kids to be safe. But this study absolutely blew my mind.

What it found is that kids need to be unsafe. They need to have unsupervised play where they might get lost. They need to fall off the 10 foot slide and chip a tooth like I did in 4th grade. They need to roughhouse and clunk their heads together.

This study shows that all of those activities allow them to test their boundaries. To get hurt and recognize that their actions have consequences. And here’s the kicker—not only does risky play not lead to more injuries, it actually makes kids healthier.

• Kids who engage in risky outdoor play are more physically active and less sedentary (shocking, I know).

• Climbing up high? Turns out, it doesn’t lead to more fractures or more serious injuries.

• Rough-and-tumble play? Instead of making kids more aggressive, it actually helps them develop better social skills, especially for boys.

• Environments that encourage risky play lead to more creativity, more resilience, and more social interactions.

And it’s not just one study. This idea shows up over and over again in research.

A study by Sandseter & Kennair (2011) in Evolutionary Psychology makes a wild argument: risky play actually reduces fear and builds resilience. They looked at it from an evolutionary perspective—kids are wired to take risks as a way of learning how to manage danger. If you remove those opportunities, they don’t just grow up “safe”—they grow up unprepared. Worse, when they finally do encounter risk as teens or adults, they don’t know how to handle it. That’s how you get kids who go from padded playgrounds to reckless decision-making later in life like speeding when they get their first drivers license.

Then there’s Morrongiello & Lasenby-Lessard (2007) in Injury Prevention, which takes it even further. Their research suggests that too much safety can actually make kids worse at judging risk. If they never get the chance to take small, controlled risks when they’re young, they don’t develop the ability to assess danger properly. So when they do face an actual risky situation—one without the guardrails of a carefully designed playground—they don’t have the instincts to handle it safely.

The takeaway? Wrapping kids in bubble wrap doesn’t make them stronger. It makes them fragile. If you want kids to grow into capable, confident adults, you have to let them fall, scrape their knees, and figure out how to get back up. Not just because it toughens them up—but because it teaches them how the world actually works.

What kinds of risks are we misunderstanding as adults?

I got walking pneumonia last week and that meant I was stuck watching a bunch of TV. I watched the Netflix series Painkiller, which was fantastic by the way. (Albeit a little sad)

Painkiller explores the opioid crisis that destroyed the lives of millions. It focuses on how Purdue Pharmaceuticals got Oxycontin approved by the FDA. This got me thinking a lot about the Peltzman Effect.

When any of us takes a pill that is prescribed by our doctor, we just assume that it’s safe. We trust our doctors more than almost any other profession. Then on top of it, we trust that the FDA and the government has done their job and tested the medication.

We trust these professions so much that most of us rarely if ever ask questions about the product and we certainly never read the crazy long disclaimers that accompany the medication!

When I watched the characters in the show Painkiller, I felt so much sympathy for them. Many of them had stories that I had heard from personal friends and family. They got injured on the job or in a sport, they had pain that couldn’t be fixed, so their doctor prescribed them something that helped.

One pill everyday that miraculously solved the pain. Amazing!

But they were also told something somewhat unbelievable. Even though this pill is chemically very similar to Heroin, it doesn’t have risk of addiction! Wow! I can have my cake and eat it too.

I know some of the people that were tricked by this and they were led down a path towards never ending addiction. They put their faith in Purdue Pharma, the FDA, and their well intentioned Doctor that told them this information.

They trusted that the lifeguard on duty was doing their job.

They were able to suspend their own skepticism and believe something that is unbelievable. There are no pills without side effects. There are no absolutely safe chemicals - everything is poison depending upon the dose. Even too much water can kill you.

But I don’t think it’s the chemical that we need to fear. It’s our own brain and our risk perception that we need to recalibrate.

I think we could all benefit from being a little less trusting and a bit more skeptical. We shouldn’t be so quick to outsource our safety, or the safety of our family, the the lifeguard on duty. Because everyone makes mistakes. The 15 year old lifeguard makes mistakes. But so does the FDA.

This isn’t to undermine the importance of the FDA. Quite the contrary, this is simply to say, we must always take responsibility for our own safety.

There are two more products that I am quite worried about. One is the mass prescription of ADHD medication for children. The other is the mass adoption of drugs like Ozempic to cure weight loss. Again, I am NOT downplaying the massive breakthrough that these drugs provide to many. These are important drugs for many and they have hugely positive benefits.

But let’s please not completely suspend our skepticism.

Do we really, honestly believe, that in 20 years from now there will not be any negative side effects discovered from a drug that can somehow keep you skinny even though you survive on a diet of cupcakes and alcohol?

Let’s not kid ourselves. There is no free lunch. Lets just be a little careful here.

We can’t outsource our own safety to others. History shows, it doesn’t turn out well. Stay skeptical.